Redstate

Posted at 12:47pm on May 12, 2008 The Sadrist/Iraqi Government "Truce" -- A play for peace, or a quick time out to rearm and catch their breath?

Time will tell, but for now the bullets are still flying

By Jeff Emanuel

Note: More background is provided in this Human Events column.

Over the weekend, spokesmen for the Iraqi government and the Sadrist political bloc confirmed what our own lovable fuzzball Moe Lane posted here Friday night: that a cease-fire agreement concerning Sadr City had been reached. A large Shi'a district northeast of Baghdad, Sadr City has been the site of intense fighting between Jaish al Mahdi (JAM, or "Mahdi Army") militants and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and coalition forces for the last six weeks or so. During that time, JAM has lost exponentially more of its fighters than the ISF and coalition forces have.

Sadrist leaders made a series of concessions in their rush to get a peace deal inked -- though whether or not that deal will actually be honored is another question. The deal and the likelihood of its being lived up to are explored below the fold.

Read on.

Posted in Iraq | Mahdi Army | Muqtada al-Sadr | Nouri al-Maliki | Sadr City | War — Comments (7)/ Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 11:00pm on Feb. 25, 2008 Sadr puts finger in the wind, detects no will to fight among the Shi'a militias

What is one to do when they have no *real* power or influence?

By Jeff Emanuel

I just want to piggyback a bit on Neil's excellent post on erstwhile wannabe mullah Muqtada al Sadr's most recent declaration that his "Mahdi Army" will continue its "truce" for another six months with these quick notes:

Sadr keeps extending this "truce" because he has no army, has no more devotees, and has no control whatsoever. He makes these declarations not as a leader, but as a follower -- he has his finger in the air, and has again gotten the clear sense that the militia fighters whom he once counted as allies or minions haven't, at the moment, the stomach for continuing the fight, so he declares postemptively that there will be another "truce."

It's sort of like wandering into the middle of a one-way street, seeing that all the cars are going West, then stepping up to the podium and decreeing that "All traffic on this road shall now move West!"

Every time he does this (I count this as at least the fifth time, but I could be off by a half dozen or so), he risks being entirely outed as the fraud of a "leader" that he is -- each misjudgment of which way the wind is blowing on these issues takes another chunk out of the Wizard of Oz persona that he has presented both to the world and to his own countrymen. There's a man behind the curtain, and that curtain has been steadily drawn back over the last couple years.

In conclusion, I think Neil made an outstanding point when he said the following:

"I find it interesting that the way to gain prestige in Iraq now is to present yourself as a peacemaker, someone trying to help build Iraq back into a thriving country."

Posted in Iraq | Muqtada al-Sadr | War — Comments (13)/ Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 10:40am on Feb. 23, 2008 Muqtada al-Sadr disappoints Democrats

Progress in Iraq continues

By Neil Stevens

Despite the hopes of some Democratic opponents of the War on Terror – wishing that the fighting would escalate in Iraq and give an excuse to retreat – radical Islamofascist Muqtada al-Sadr has extended his truce in Iraq for another six months.

And my how things have changed in Iraq, judging by this AP quote:

Sheik al-Sadr has said he needs time to reorganize his militia and the announcement was widely seen as a bid to bolster his image as a major player in Iraq as Shi'ite leaders jockey for power ahead of an anticipated U.S. force reduction.

I find it interesting that the way to gain prestige in Iraq now is to present yourself as a peacemaker, someone trying to help build Iraq back into a thriving country. It seems to me that if one were expecting everything to fall apart once the surge ends, the smart strategy would be to hit one's opponents first, but Muqtada instead is continuing the truce.

One even wonders if the Mahdi Army even has the strength it used to have, or if some of its numbers have decided that the fight is not worth having anymore, and that they'd rather help build up their homeland. That would explain the need for reorganization, I believe.

In any case, this report is just another sign of transformation in Iraq, that the people are seeking order again after a distressing period of score settling. I welcome this news, as it is another step toward peace and freedom in Iraq.

Posted in Iraq | Muqtada al-Sadr | truce | War — Comments (44)/ Email this page » / Read More »